Current Energy Baseline · 13 Months (May 2025 – May 2026)
$4,738
Total Paid
13 months · $364/mo avg
26,383
kWh Used
~2,030/mo avg · 2 EVs
$0.180
Blended Rate
All-in avg · TOU ME-RESF
$780
Peak Month
Feb 2026 · 4,269 kWh · 24°F
44%
Super Off-Peak
EV + overnight · $0.148/kWh
⚠️ Usage pattern note: Peak consumption is in winter (Dec–Feb), not summer — likely electric heat and cold-weather EV charging. Solar produces least precisely when usage is highest. Payback depends heavily on net metering credit carryover from summer surplus months.
System Scenarios — Select to Explore
18 kW
SEW Quote ★ Feb 4, 2025
45 LONGi 400W panelsGround mount
Annual production23,000 kWh
Grid offset~95%
System price$59,200
After SRECs (no fed ITC)$44,988
Yr 1 savings$5,037
Payback~8.9 yrs
18 kW + Battery
SEW Quote + Franklin WH
Franklin WH 15 kWhV2.0 · 15-yr warranty
Annual production23,000 kWh
Grid offset~95% + backup
Solar + battery$76,700
After SRECs (no fed ITC)$62,488
Yr 1 savings$5,037
Payback~12.4 yrs
20 kW
Right-sized (actual usage)
Based on actual 24,353 kWh/yr
Annual production25,300 kWh
Grid offset100%+
Est. gross cost~$64,000
After SRECs (no fed ITC)~$48,400
Yr 1 savings—
Payback~8.7 yrs
⚠️ Federal Solar ITC Expired — Updated June 2026: The 30% residential solar tax credit (Sec. 25D) was eliminated by the One Big Beautiful Bill, signed July 4, 2025, effective December 31, 2025. Systems installed in 2026 or later do not qualify for the federal ITC. All net cost figures on this page reflect SRECs only. The only remaining federal pathway is a third-party lease/PPA where the installer claims the commercial 48E credit (available through 2027). PA SRECs remain active; current market rate ~$22–$40/credit (Flett Exchange, June 2026).
Monthly Production vs. Consumption
15 kW system · York County, PA estimate vs. actual usage
Production via NREL PVWatts, York County PA (~39.9°N, south-facing, 20° tilt). Summer generates a large surplus banked as net metering credits. Winter shows a deficit partially offset by those credits.
Monthly Bill — With vs. Without Solar
15 kW system · after net metering credits
25-Year Cumulative Net Savings
3% annual rate escalation · 0.5%/yr panel degradation · net of system cost
Month-by-Month Solar Impact
15 kW system · net metering with annual true-up
| Month | Usage (kWh) | Solar Est. | Net from Grid |
Actual Bill | Est. Bill w/ Solar | Monthly Δ |
Est. Bill w/ Solar = owed after net metering credit that month. Annual true-up may further reduce winter bills using summer surplus credits. Values use blended avg rate; actual varies by TOU tier.
TOU Rate Interaction — Why Timing Matters
Solar Production by TOU Window (Summer Weekday)
Approximate daily production distribution across rate tiers
On-peak advantage: Afternoon solar (2–5pm M–F) offsets charges at $0.289/kWh all-in — the most expensive tier. A slightly west-of-south array maximizes this benefit.
Rate Schedule — ME-RESF TOU
Effective Dec 1, 2025
| Tier | Gen | All-In | Hours | Solar |
|---|
| On-Peak | $0.2212 | $0.289 | 2–9pm M–F | ~35% summer afternoon |
| Off-Peak | $0.1089 | $0.176 | 6am–2pm + 9–11pm | ~65% of daily |
| Super Off-Peak | $0.0806 | $0.148 | 11pm–6am | None (nighttime) |
44% of current usage is super off-peak (EV charging + overnight loads). Solar doesn't offset these hours directly — a battery would shift daytime solar to nighttime use. Without storage, those SOP kWh still come from the grid at the cheap rate, which is fine.
Financial Analysis — Solar Energy World Quote (Feb 4, 2025)
SEW Quote · Cost & Incentives
18 kW · 45 LONGi 400W · Ground mount · Tesla inverter
| List price | $61,200 |
| SEW panel rebate | −$2,000 |
| Total system cost | $59,200 |
| Federal ITC (30%) EXPIRED 12/31/25 | $0 |
| PA SRECs (20-yr value) $22–40/credit · ~23/yr | −$14,212 |
| Net cost after incentives | $44,988 |
Battery add-on (Franklin WH 15 kWh): $17,500 gross. Fed ITC expired 12/31/25 — no federal credit for residential owned systems. Net cost: $17,500. Battery prices continue to fall; revisit in 2–3 years.
SEW Quote · Annual Savings
From SEW proposal · 5% annual rate escalation
| Estimated production | 23,000 kWh/yr |
| SEW assumed consumption | 21,000 kWh ⚠️ |
| Actual consumption | ~24,353 kWh |
| Yr 1 energy savings | $4,255 |
| Yr 1 SREC income | +$782 |
| Yr 1 total benefit | $5,037 |
⚠️ SEW used 21,000 kWh/yr but actual usage is ~24,353 kWh. The 18 kW system produces ~23,000 kWh — still ~95% offset, but not full offset. A 20 kW system would be right-sized for actual usage.
SEW Quote · Payback & 30-Year Value
Per SEW proposal · 5% annual rate escalation
| Simple payback | 8.23 yrs |
| 30-yr energy savings | $258,488 |
| 30-yr SREC income | $14,212 |
| 30-yr total savings + income | $272,700 |
SEW uses 5% annual rate escalation vs. our model’s 3%. Their 30-yr projection assumes doing nothing costs $258,488. System warranty: 30-year Triple Platinum Extended.
Battery Storage Consideration
Should Stille Hof Add Battery Storage?
Based on current TOU rate structure and usage pattern
Arguments FOR (e.g. Tesla Powerwall 3 · ~$15K installed)
- Store summer surplus for same-day evening use (2–9pm on-peak offset)
- Backup power for 1902 stone house — grid outage resilience
- No fed credit now, but battery prices continue to fall — stronger case in 2–3 years
- 2026 Model 3 supports V2H — EV as mobile storage
Arguments AGAINST (for now)
- SOP rate ($0.148/kWh) is cheap — overnight grid power is reasonable
- PA net metering provides retail credit — no urgency to self-consume
- EVs are ~150 kWh of mobile storage already
- Battery adds 3–4 yrs to payback; prices still falling
Bottom line: Start solar-only. Add battery in 3–5 years when installed costs drop further or if PA net metering policy changes.
Methodology & Assumptions
Solar production: NREL PVWatts for York County PA (39.9°N), south-facing, 20° tilt, 14% system losses. Monthly kWh/kWp: Jan 62 · Feb 80 · Mar 105 · Apr 125 · May 140 · Jun 145 · Jul 148 · Aug 135 · Sep 118 · Oct 95 · Nov 62 · Dec 50. Annual ~1,265 kWh/kWp.
System cost: $3.00/watt installed (2025 PA residential avg per NREL/EnergySage). Competitive bids range $2.50–$3.50/W.
Savings: Actual 13-month billing data from elec.dx1.dev. Uses blended avg rate ($4,738 ÷ 26,383 kWh = $0.1796/kWh). Actual savings may be 10–15% higher due to on-peak afternoon solar at $0.289/kWh.
25-year projection: 3% annual rate escalation (EIA 30-yr PA avg), 0.5%/yr panel degradation, no SREC income. Federal ITC (Sec. 25D) expired 12/31/25 — not applied to 2026 installs. Net cost used in charts reflects full system price minus PA SREC 20-yr value only.
Property note: 1902 stone house. Roof structure, age, and orientation must be assessed by a licensed installer. Historic character may affect panel placement options.